https://x.com/BEBR_UF/status/1377985575836389381
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/53a0d22326c04622969756ecfb8cf474
https://edr.state.fl.us/content/presentations/economic/FlEconomicOverview_1-22-24.pdf
Florida is no longer a swing state as of 2022. That year Ron DeSantis absolutely crushed Crist in the gubernatorial election winning nearly 60% of the popular vote. In 2020 Trump won Florida by a little over 3 points and now he is expected to double his lead according to the polls. Oftentimes when attempting to understand why people vote the way they do it can be helpful to examine the economic status of the state one wants to focus on. As per the assignment I've chosen three maps in order to better understand the economic status of Florida in order to learn more about the state and hopefully gain some insight as to why Florida has become a likely red state. When analyzing the economic data I noticed that the Broward County, Miami-Dade County, Pinellas County, Hillsborough County, Orange County, and Palm beach county seemed to be the most economically significant counties in the state having some of the largest GDP's in Florida as well as having low levels of unemployment and in some cases high per capita income levels. When we dig into the voting patterns of these counties with the economic data in mind we see something interesting: there has been a strong shift to the right in these counties. there also seems to be a number of counties with low per capita incomes such as Glades, and Holmes county who voted strongly for DeSantis in 2022. There could be numerous reasons for all of this happening but I find it interesting is the short time in which this shift has happened. Counties such as Miami-Dade went red in 2022 despite going Blue in 2020. Many factors contribute to this shift, according to a USA Today article on the topic "(it's been caused by)... more Republicans moving to the state than Democrats, a huge GOP voter registration advantage, national political realignment shifting more non-college educated voters toward Republican candidates, a growing Hispanic population that is trending more conservative, a weak Florida Democratic Party and major GOP figures who have put their imprint on the state. " No doubt economic factors are contributing as well the same USA Today article provided an anecdote about a man named Reyna and his family "... Reyna’s wife had offers to work in Florida as a nurse. The pull of family, jobs and COVID politics led the Reynas to make the move in November 2020. 'They really took the lockdown super seriously (in Massachusetts) and they shut everything down,' said Reyna, who now lives in the Miami area. 'I didn’t see that kind of closure in Florida. From a professional standpoint, that was appealing.'" As we can see the response to COVID in Florida may also appeal to some voters who moved from other states as well as various other factors. Overall Florida's shift from swing state to likely Republican is a fascinating one with various factors contributing to this. When one analyzes the economic data in these maps along with voting patterns it will help provide some insight as to why this shift may be occurring.
1 comment:
I find your analysis very interesting because it surprised me when I saw that Florida voted Blue in 2008 and 2012 since they are now seen as a very prominent Red state. It's interesting to see how just one guy basically changed everything. Also from an economic standpoint it makes sense why so many people moved to Florida for not taking the pandemic as seriously as other states and the lasting impact those people that moved now have on Florida's Red reputation.
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